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Italy | Serie A | Fiorentina - Napoli | 20.09.2026 | 11:30 | LIVE 78'   —   Fiorentina 1:1 Napoli
Side Goal Red Pen Shots Target Missed Corners POS -1.5 -1 AH0 +1 +1.5
Home 1 0 0 15 3 12 3 43 - - 2.05 - -
Away 1 0 0 8 2 6 3 57 - - 1.8 - -
W1 X W2 1X 12 X2 O0.5 U0.5 O1.5 U1.5 O2.5 U2.5 O3.5 U3.5
4.75 1.61 4.33 1.2 2.2 1.17 - - - - 2.12 1.75 8 1.08
TOP-4 markets ranking:
1) WATCH | Under 2.5 Goals @1.75 | Edge -0.6% | EV -5.1% | Hist ROI +17.5% | n=356
2) WATCH | Draw @1.61 | Edge -3.6% | EV -11.6% | Hist ROI +12.1% | n=356
3) WATCH | Home — Draw No Bet @2.00 | Edge +1.9% | EV -3.6% | Hist ROI -0.3% | n=356
4) WATCH | Home Win @4.75 | Edge +2.4% | EV +5.9% | Hist ROI -27.9% | n=356
AI-agent: The game is evenly paced, with the home team having a slight edge in creating chances: Fiorentina has more shots and shots on target, while Napoli holds more possession. Both teams are equal in corners, and there have been no send-offs so far. The match tempo is low, with balanced pressure and no clear dominance.

There is an open bet on the home team with a +1.5 handicap, which is currently winning and has a comfortable buffer. The next goal by the home team won’t harm this bet, and a goal by the visitors won’t turn it into a loss.

Among the top four markets, the under 2.5 goals bet at odds of 2.20 stands out as worth watching, though it doesn’t show a clear value advantage yet. Other options—home win with a refund if drawn, home win outright, and draw—do not currently appear very attractive.
Updated: Sept. 20, 2026, 1:13 p.m. | fixture_id: 1550130 | minute: 78