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Italy | Serie A | Fiorentina - Napoli | 20.09.2026 | 11:30 | LIVE 76'   —   Fiorentina 1:1 Napoli
Side Goal Red Pen Shots Target Missed Corners POS -1.5 -1 AH0 +1 +1.5
Home 1 0 0 14 3 11 3 45 - - 2.02 - -
Away 1 0 0 8 2 6 3 55 - - 1.82 - -
W1 X W2 1X 12 X2 O0.5 U0.5 O1.5 U1.5 O2.5 U2.5 O3.5 U3.5
4.5 1.67 4 1.22 2.1 1.18 - - - - 1.98 1.88 6.5 1.11
TOP-4 markets ranking:
1) WATCH | Under 2.5 Goals @1.88 | Edge -0.6% | EV -5.0% | Hist ROI +16.7% | n=371
2) WATCH | Draw @1.67 | Edge -3.6% | EV -12.8% | Hist ROI +10.0% | n=371
3) WATCH | Home — Draw No Bet @1.91 | Edge +1.9% | EV -3.8% | Hist ROI -4.6% | n=371
4) WATCH | Home Win @4.50 | Edge +2.5% | EV +4.4% | Hist ROI -30.9% | n=371
AI-agent: The game is evenly paced, with the home team having a slight edge in creating chances: Fiorentina has more shots and shots on target, while Napoli holds more possession. Both teams are equal in corners, and there have been no send-offs so far. The match tempo is low, with balanced pressure and no clear dominance.

There is an open bet on the home team with a +1.5 handicap, which is currently winning and has a comfortable buffer. The next goal by the home team won’t harm this bet, and a goal by the visitors won’t turn it into a loss.

Among the top four markets, the under 2.5 goals bet at odds of 2.20 stands out as worth watching, though it doesn’t show a clear value advantage yet. Other options—home win with a refund if drawn, home win outright, and draw—do not currently appear very attractive.
Updated: Sept. 20, 2026, 1:10 p.m. | fixture_id: 1550130 | minute: 76